* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 56 61 63 64 65 66 67 67 64 61 51 42 33 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 56 61 63 64 65 66 67 67 64 61 51 42 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 53 56 59 59 59 60 62 62 60 54 44 33 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 7 9 14 17 14 15 9 11 21 37 49 58 57 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 2 0 2 -3 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 352 351 3 9 2 341 346 350 337 321 279 225 222 217 222 227 226 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.3 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 148 146 145 144 137 134 138 140 140 134 129 122 117 108 109 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 72 71 71 70 70 68 70 72 70 65 61 61 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 17 18 18 21 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -22 -21 -18 -6 8 20 27 21 20 40 37 41 28 22 -22 200 MB DIV 58 62 69 43 8 6 9 15 46 34 54 60 86 66 29 7 3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 -4 -1 3 10 24 30 27 23 LAND (KM) 1909 1998 2090 2171 2247 2408 2235 2028 1845 1672 1518 1389 1307 1267 1227 1189 1207 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.9 16.1 17.9 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.2 128.3 129.4 130.5 132.6 134.7 136.7 138.4 139.8 140.9 141.7 142.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 17 12 12 14 9 8 7 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -24. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 24. 21. 11. 2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 126.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 48.2% 33.0% 24.0% 15.9% 23.3% 19.4% 13.7% Logistic: 37.3% 63.4% 46.3% 37.7% 8.4% 33.3% 14.3% 18.9% Bayesian: 26.6% 54.5% 25.0% 12.2% 4.5% 24.3% 6.0% 0.1% Consensus: 28.6% 55.3% 34.8% 24.6% 9.6% 27.0% 13.2% 10.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##