* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 28 25 24 21 18 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 28 25 24 21 18 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 25 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 34 39 43 51 47 50 43 33 4 4 19 33 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 245 241 241 240 234 230 228 232 217 177 78 355 324 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.7 25.0 25.1 23.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 143 140 139 140 138 130 123 122 114 115 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -55.0 -54.8 -55.6 -56.4 -57.2 -56.8 -56.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 47 48 51 57 57 54 54 55 63 69 73 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 53 64 73 80 87 87 81 66 23 39 49 82 117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 22 40 35 46 18 41 64 75 39 11 21 17 49 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 8 11 15 7 8 3 0 7 29 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 395 449 510 565 623 703 773 895 1108 1403 1713 2020 2298 2395 2124 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.9 21.3 23.4 25.7 28.2 30.6 32.8 34.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.7 163.5 164.2 164.9 165.6 166.7 167.7 168.8 170.3 172.3 174.4 176.6 178.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 10 13 14 15 15 14 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 31 26 22 20 16 18 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -21. -34. -44. -47. -44. -43. -45. -51. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -12. -12. -11. -13. -18. -27. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 162.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING