* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152018 08/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 55 61 65 69 72 74 74 77 74 69 61 51 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 55 61 65 69 72 74 74 77 74 69 61 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 43 46 51 54 55 56 58 61 64 62 53 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 5 6 6 14 8 9 10 4 7 20 32 39 47 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 5 5 -6 SHEAR DIR 334 360 24 15 20 355 324 334 325 329 294 239 221 212 217 214 218 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.8 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 148 146 144 139 136 138 140 139 138 133 126 122 111 113 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 72 73 71 71 71 71 74 75 71 64 57 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 13 16 17 17 18 19 19 22 23 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -30 -23 -16 -22 -13 1 18 28 33 34 36 41 51 32 19 -6 200 MB DIV 45 58 67 67 38 6 0 48 43 57 54 97 78 98 55 60 28 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 8 19 30 42 33 LAND (KM) 1833 1917 2005 2089 2167 2315 2347 2139 1938 1750 1593 1459 1338 1268 1205 1153 1165 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.4 16.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.3 129.4 131.5 133.5 135.5 137.4 139.1 140.4 141.3 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 24 17 12 13 11 11 12 8 8 7 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -10. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 39. 39. 42. 40. 34. 26. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 124.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 40.1% 26.5% 20.7% 14.6% 20.7% 20.8% 18.9% Logistic: 23.0% 58.3% 39.4% 29.2% 4.8% 33.4% 15.5% 20.2% Bayesian: 10.0% 40.2% 16.7% 6.4% 1.6% 18.2% 7.2% 0.3% Consensus: 16.0% 46.2% 27.5% 18.8% 7.0% 24.1% 14.5% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##