* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 26 26 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 26 26 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 32 33 38 44 56 50 47 38 19 7 17 37 14 10 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 8 6 4 1 2 -1 -6 -5 -9 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 257 251 249 242 243 237 233 221 231 220 192 75 4 354 291 235 187 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.5 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.1 24.6 20.7 16.0 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 144 142 138 139 141 133 127 126 116 111 71 64 64 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -56.1 -56.8 -56.8 -56.2 -56.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 1.3 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 45 48 49 55 57 56 54 51 55 62 67 73 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 12 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 48 59 66 72 84 84 78 71 48 37 37 31 125 181 192 200 MB DIV -17 -9 19 40 45 61 30 51 66 62 16 23 20 23 76 113 119 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 0 2 8 17 19 28 19 8 2 7 8 5 -15 LAND (KM) 327 373 430 491 556 647 708 822 1026 1297 1613 1940 2251 2375 2072 1825 1530 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.6 20.8 22.5 24.7 27.1 29.4 31.7 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.7 162.5 163.3 164.1 164.8 166.0 167.0 168.2 169.8 171.7 174.0 176.4 178.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 11 14 15 15 16 15 16 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 33 27 23 17 15 16 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 22. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -9. -20. -34. -45. -50. -48. -46. -48. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. 1. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -16. -17. -25. -27. -27. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 161.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING