* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 28 27 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 27 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 26 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 33 35 33 32 41 52 52 48 37 22 6 15 24 35 33 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 4 7 6 9 5 4 0 -2 -6 -6 -3 -10 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 260 258 254 255 248 243 234 223 219 223 199 91 15 6 354 340 338 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.1 25.2 24.5 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 144 144 143 139 139 139 137 130 126 124 115 114 107 94 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -55.6 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 -57.4 -56.5 -56.6 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 44 44 43 43 46 50 51 56 57 57 53 54 58 60 68 73 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 13 16 17 16 13 10 10 18 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 44 55 66 77 84 93 87 73 58 28 27 26 -2 34 37 200 MB DIV 9 -9 -10 21 42 65 24 49 40 63 30 39 12 -12 28 37 33 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 14 12 28 17 8 2 -6 3 13 14 LAND (KM) 270 303 351 415 485 599 680 780 917 1101 1366 1676 1981 2236 2428 2355 2202 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.4 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.5 27.8 30.1 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.5 162.3 163.1 163.9 165.4 166.6 167.8 169.0 170.3 172.1 174.3 176.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 11 13 14 15 13 11 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 40 35 28 20 15 19 14 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -10. -21. -33. -43. -48. -46. -43. -43. -47. -55. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -16. -19. -20. -17. -13. -14. -20. -28. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 160.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING