* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 71 64 56 44 35 28 25 25 20 16 21 22 21 20 22 V (KT) LAND 90 82 71 64 56 44 35 28 25 25 20 16 21 22 21 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 73 65 57 47 38 32 27 23 19 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 24 29 33 40 47 45 50 51 52 48 32 12 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 11 8 7 5 -1 6 4 3 0 0 1 -2 -9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 243 256 270 279 269 278 257 244 236 229 221 204 163 29 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.1 25.7 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 138 139 143 143 143 141 139 140 136 122 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 -56.0 -55.5 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 52 44 41 45 52 53 55 57 57 53 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 14 14 13 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 17 19 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 27 35 48 48 59 70 78 101 96 86 66 39 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 47 11 -4 -9 -1 3 43 59 38 42 29 56 17 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 16 11 7 2 -1 -4 0 6 10 19 18 34 20 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 187 151 149 128 168 221 328 425 527 660 826 1063 1341 1616 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.5 21.2 22.6 24.5 26.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.9 157.9 157.9 158.2 158.5 159.9 161.5 162.9 164.1 165.3 166.6 167.8 169.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 6 8 10 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 35 30 19 37 38 26 20 20 13 7 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -37. -43. -46. -47. -44. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -10. -11. -11. -3. -0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -26. -34. -46. -55. -62. -65. -65. -70. -74. -69. -68. -69. -70. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.9 157.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING