* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 101 92 84 69 58 47 42 38 37 35 32 30 32 36 37 V (KT) LAND 115 107 101 92 84 69 58 47 42 38 37 35 32 30 32 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 99 91 82 67 56 47 41 37 34 31 28 27 28 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 18 15 25 32 38 43 45 44 45 40 35 23 3 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 10 14 12 10 3 0 3 2 2 3 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 246 233 243 267 266 275 269 271 253 243 235 231 238 234 11 21 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.3 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 137 138 140 143 144 144 144 141 140 142 138 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 61 62 55 46 41 42 44 48 49 48 45 43 48 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 21 19 15 14 12 12 11 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 81 76 67 46 41 37 49 59 72 72 88 92 95 92 89 70 49 200 MB DIV 77 110 95 70 64 6 -28 -30 0 33 59 30 52 25 33 -5 13 700-850 TADV 4 5 9 17 22 6 0 -2 -3 0 4 4 19 21 21 11 2 LAND (KM) 283 241 214 206 187 168 204 229 295 405 486 574 687 866 1107 1390 1676 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.0 19.8 19.8 19.8 20.2 20.9 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.5 157.6 157.7 157.8 157.9 158.4 159.5 160.8 162.1 163.5 164.6 165.7 166.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 37 43 41 38 39 34 19 34 41 33 25 20 21 16 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -42. -46. -48. -49. -49. -50. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. -25. -30. -34. -35. -29. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -18. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -23. -31. -46. -57. -68. -73. -77. -78. -80. -83. -84. -83. -79. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.0 157.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING