* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 110 104 97 83 69 56 49 42 39 35 32 29 34 39 42 V (KT) LAND 125 117 110 104 97 83 69 56 49 42 39 35 32 29 34 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 125 116 108 99 91 76 63 52 44 38 34 31 27 26 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 10 10 8 14 24 33 43 44 48 48 49 42 33 16 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 4 7 13 13 9 3 1 0 2 1 3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 256 256 225 233 270 264 270 272 265 244 235 224 230 207 222 310 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 137 137 139 140 141 144 145 144 142 142 144 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 67 63 62 51 42 40 41 46 53 56 56 50 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 17 13 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 17 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 83 73 56 32 33 38 50 62 74 91 100 98 96 95 56 200 MB DIV 55 61 73 102 89 53 10 -36 -34 -2 29 83 49 40 45 23 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 4 6 19 6 -3 -7 -5 0 5 4 19 17 17 7 LAND (KM) 343 293 252 215 195 184 163 174 157 234 355 492 662 858 1037 1222 1410 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.5 157.6 158.0 158.6 159.4 160.5 161.7 163.2 164.7 166.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 37 41 39 38 30 17 26 40 35 24 18 20 19 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -19. -29. -38. -46. -52. -57. -59. -59. -60. -61. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -14. -19. -25. -30. -32. -27. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -17. -20. -19. -17. -15. -13. -6. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -28. -42. -56. -69. -76. -83. -86. -90. -93. -96. -91. -86. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.0 156.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING