* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 128 121 113 107 92 79 68 59 51 45 38 35 31 31 35 38 V (KT) LAND 135 128 121 113 107 92 79 68 59 51 45 38 35 31 31 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 135 126 117 109 101 86 73 62 52 45 40 36 32 30 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 14 12 15 20 30 39 45 52 53 45 36 31 25 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 1 9 11 9 4 2 -1 -1 1 7 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 218 229 231 243 237 233 251 262 270 275 267 264 270 271 263 255 279 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 139 137 140 138 141 144 144 141 141 144 147 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 60 65 67 67 67 65 62 52 43 41 42 45 44 38 37 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 21 18 15 14 12 11 10 10 12 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 70 74 70 50 25 28 29 45 56 64 84 78 80 60 45 200 MB DIV 62 52 52 72 85 102 37 28 -12 1 2 0 29 -13 -16 -30 -11 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 1 4 8 13 1 -3 -6 -6 -6 0 -3 10 3 3 LAND (KM) 414 355 308 256 218 206 171 152 136 246 402 564 738 931 1124 1327 1530 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.8 19.8 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.6 156.1 156.6 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.5 159.5 160.8 162.3 163.9 165.5 167.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 25 34 42 41 30 15 26 36 23 16 19 31 29 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -34. -44. -53. -61. -66. -69. -70. -70. -71. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -18. -24. -29. -30. -25. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -12. -12. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -28. -43. -56. -67. -76. -84. -90. -97.-100.-104.-104.-100. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.2 155.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING