* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 129 122 115 110 97 85 73 66 59 52 46 42 38 35 38 40 V (KT) LAND 135 129 122 115 110 97 85 73 66 59 52 46 42 38 35 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 135 127 119 111 104 91 78 67 58 51 46 42 39 37 36 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 11 20 25 33 42 44 47 43 40 33 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -3 6 10 8 7 2 4 0 3 0 6 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 223 214 213 222 231 226 249 267 268 267 263 250 266 252 273 269 253 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 138 140 140 140 144 144 142 139 142 145 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 66 65 64 62 56 47 40 40 42 43 39 39 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 21 20 18 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 64 72 73 65 42 33 39 47 56 65 79 80 87 66 54 200 MB DIV 68 57 62 66 84 105 78 30 7 -20 0 1 11 -3 -10 -30 -34 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 1 5 11 15 0 -5 -5 -2 -5 0 2 5 2 LAND (KM) 452 386 327 275 234 176 189 143 99 161 309 475 649 827 1020 1222 1426 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.4 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.0 155.5 156.0 156.4 156.8 157.4 158.2 159.1 160.3 161.6 163.1 164.7 166.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 25 27 33 37 37 18 20 34 25 19 15 25 29 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -22. -33. -44. -53. -60. -66. -69. -70. -70. -71. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -8. -10. -15. -20. -25. -27. -22. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -3. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -25. -38. -50. -62. -69. -76. -83. -89. -93. -97.-100. -97. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.9 155.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING