* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 130 124 120 108 96 83 73 64 56 48 42 36 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 135 133 130 124 120 108 96 83 73 64 56 48 42 36 31 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 135 130 124 117 110 99 88 75 65 57 50 46 41 38 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 12 10 16 27 37 42 51 51 52 49 52 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -3 -6 -1 6 14 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 192 190 189 211 198 222 235 255 267 270 263 269 260 268 264 263 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 141 139 136 138 139 138 137 142 141 139 139 141 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 62 63 62 60 57 52 45 40 40 43 46 46 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 20 22 22 21 17 15 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 54 56 64 74 68 51 53 47 48 58 65 84 79 85 64 200 MB DIV 63 37 29 32 70 96 113 67 12 -4 -14 3 7 20 22 -12 -42 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 4 7 7 5 -3 -7 -8 -5 -8 0 6 13 LAND (KM) 548 487 432 370 315 220 172 158 108 55 144 317 496 690 868 1054 1229 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.2 18.5 19.8 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.6 154.3 154.9 155.4 155.9 156.7 157.4 158.1 159.0 160.1 161.6 163.3 165.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 33 27 23 29 38 33 19 17 29 20 17 15 31 33 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -13. -22. -33. -44. -53. -61. -67. -70. -71. -71. -72. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -26. -24. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -15. -27. -39. -52. -62. -71. -79. -87. -93. -99.-104.-106.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 14.4 153.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 665.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/22/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING