* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 134 131 126 116 106 98 91 79 76 67 60 55 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 130 133 134 131 126 116 106 98 91 79 76 67 60 55 50 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 130 131 128 123 117 104 94 85 75 68 61 54 49 45 43 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 4 6 6 8 7 7 20 25 35 39 41 42 39 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 4 17 11 10 4 2 0 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 134 233 192 204 214 220 191 206 236 267 261 260 270 267 259 264 272 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 146 142 137 136 137 139 137 139 143 142 140 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 53 58 60 61 64 61 59 56 53 49 44 41 40 40 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 22 22 24 24 23 21 16 17 14 13 12 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 52 55 60 57 75 73 72 54 44 42 55 71 77 82 82 200 MB DIV 82 63 31 35 32 59 76 97 106 43 10 -9 -13 2 20 26 14 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 0 0 2 2 5 4 5 0 -1 -6 -4 -5 -1 1 LAND (KM) 751 687 624 564 512 404 302 228 232 208 186 138 203 344 497 653 813 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.2 20.6 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.7 152.5 153.3 154.0 155.3 156.4 157.2 158.0 158.7 159.6 160.6 161.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 23 32 29 21 36 42 23 12 21 33 26 18 13 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -18. -29. -39. -48. -55. -61. -65. -65. -65. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 3. -1. -6. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 1. -4. -14. -24. -32. -39. -51. -54. -62. -70. -75. -80. -83. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.9 150.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 675.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/21/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING