* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 113 111 106 102 100 97 90 86 80 76 69 63 57 52 V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 113 111 106 102 100 97 90 86 80 76 69 63 57 52 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 113 111 109 103 97 93 88 80 72 67 61 56 51 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 6 5 2 2 5 8 8 11 20 36 42 46 52 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 4 8 10 9 7 1 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 357 95 181 211 232 227 316 175 228 217 262 258 266 269 278 277 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 143 142 141 144 144 142 138 138 140 137 138 140 141 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 55 57 61 64 62 60 56 57 53 46 43 42 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 19 21 22 22 22 23 20 19 16 15 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 48 46 50 58 62 69 74 66 38 34 32 48 55 54 42 200 MB DIV 42 55 67 43 49 60 50 63 78 63 39 12 -16 -16 -29 -22 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 11 2 -3 -5 -6 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 937 852 773 708 645 526 427 345 292 286 259 178 131 189 300 450 604 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.2 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.6 150.6 151.5 152.3 153.9 155.2 156.4 157.5 158.4 159.2 160.0 160.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 12 13 29 34 25 33 41 21 13 23 30 22 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -19. -28. -35. -41. -45. -48. -48. -49. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 6. 1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 2. -0. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -18. -25. -29. -35. -39. -45. -52. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.5 148.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 672.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/20/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING