* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 102 96 94 89 85 82 83 82 80 82 80 81 81 80 74 V (KT) LAND 115 109 102 96 94 89 85 82 83 82 80 82 80 81 81 80 74 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 96 92 87 84 82 82 80 78 75 74 72 69 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 12 7 11 12 7 4 12 6 8 5 7 13 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 -2 -2 -5 -1 -1 5 2 5 -1 2 10 9 11 8 SHEAR DIR 286 284 280 288 282 304 292 257 285 269 283 265 260 227 241 247 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 146 151 146 145 145 145 143 142 142 140 139 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 63 61 58 58 60 63 64 66 65 62 59 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 22 23 21 21 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -6 6 17 27 31 38 42 47 57 62 51 35 33 37 47 200 MB DIV 58 77 22 23 24 23 65 44 55 25 56 57 90 82 76 53 6 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 6 5 3 3 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1728 1605 1482 1373 1265 1076 905 767 641 512 436 417 472 548 534 607 732 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.5 142.6 143.7 144.7 146.7 148.6 150.4 152.2 154.0 155.7 157.5 159.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 23 21 19 25 16 16 16 24 24 18 25 27 30 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -18. -26. -32. -38. -42. -45. -45. -46. -47. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -9. -10. -8. -4. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -21. -26. -30. -33. -32. -33. -35. -33. -35. -34. -34. -35. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.6 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING