* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 75 82 89 97 101 101 101 98 96 87 84 80 77 75 72 V (KT) LAND 60 68 75 82 89 97 101 101 101 98 96 87 84 80 77 75 72 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 81 85 93 102 108 109 106 98 87 80 74 67 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 9 9 3 3 4 5 6 9 17 20 17 16 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 4 2 0 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 11 15 359 10 9 16 6 348 5 333 296 277 280 261 265 271 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 151 147 146 148 150 150 147 145 139 144 145 145 143 142 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 68 67 69 64 60 57 53 50 49 50 52 54 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 16 18 17 20 22 24 24 26 23 24 23 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 2 -1 -1 3 2 13 17 23 24 38 39 48 32 38 31 200 MB DIV 63 92 93 79 53 44 56 71 33 43 45 4 -1 2 5 -14 9 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -8 -6 -5 -4 0 1 2 4 6 6 3 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 2307 2394 2485 2576 2467 2176 1883 1611 1351 1105 880 690 531 413 427 551 727 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.4 130.7 132.0 133.4 136.1 138.8 141.3 143.7 146.0 148.2 150.3 152.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 21 19 11 9 11 18 19 16 10 22 19 28 18 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 29. 37. 41. 41. 41. 38. 36. 27. 24. 20. 17. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.5 128.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 11.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 9.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 13.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 9.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.8% 66.5% 59.8% 52.0% 38.5% 44.2% 36.5% 20.8% Logistic: 48.9% 68.9% 54.6% 48.4% 47.0% 44.1% 28.3% 9.3% Bayesian: 54.7% 74.6% 63.8% 55.7% 30.6% 56.0% 10.1% 0.1% Consensus: 49.8% 70.0% 59.4% 52.1% 38.7% 48.1% 25.0% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##