* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142018 08/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 57 68 75 86 91 96 98 101 99 99 94 93 91 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 57 68 75 86 91 96 98 101 99 99 94 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 52 62 73 84 93 98 98 98 95 89 81 75 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 7 10 7 5 2 2 3 5 6 5 15 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 1 2 3 0 8 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 69 67 77 65 53 51 50 39 356 44 18 314 274 262 268 288 293 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 147 144 143 144 144 149 149 145 139 138 141 144 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 71 69 69 66 63 60 55 56 51 48 47 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 14 14 14 19 20 21 22 25 25 28 26 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -19 -18 -12 0 3 12 16 19 23 31 38 48 63 61 67 200 MB DIV 42 58 71 70 80 67 51 55 60 57 56 46 35 46 20 -14 -26 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -3 0 5 4 5 7 10 3 LAND (KM) 1933 2011 2094 2172 2253 2403 2554 2325 2065 1815 1566 1338 1110 886 676 495 370 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.5 127.6 129.8 132.1 134.5 136.8 139.0 141.2 143.2 145.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 17 18 19 21 20 8 10 12 15 24 13 15 27 15 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 17. 18. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 23. 33. 40. 51. 56. 61. 63. 66. 64. 64. 59. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.7 123.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 30.5% 24.5% 20.0% 13.8% 20.7% 28.7% 35.2% Logistic: 11.3% 38.9% 25.9% 15.5% 13.6% 17.8% 34.2% 26.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 21.2% 9.6% 2.6% 1.7% 9.6% 11.5% 1.1% Consensus: 8.8% 30.2% 20.0% 12.7% 9.7% 16.0% 24.8% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 FOURTEEN 08/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##