* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 50 51 55 58 59 61 62 63 64 64 65 53 27 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 50 51 55 58 59 61 62 63 64 64 65 53 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 48 48 51 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 8 2 6 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 44 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 3 -1 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 226 231 228 154 169 134 143 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 221 196 164 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.8 27.0 27.1 26.6 27.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 134 136 137 131 136 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -50.7 -49.7 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 52 52 54 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 47 47 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 13 13 13 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -33 -41 -40 -44 -65 -78 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 68 58 20 200 MB DIV 8 9 8 32 23 2 -40 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 268 125 136 700-850 TADV 11 11 7 1 4 3 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -73 -59 -29 LAND (KM) 1841 2004 2167 2325 2483 2803 2656 2358 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 743 572 485 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 28.1 29.3 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 178.0 179.5 181.1 182.6 184.1 187.2 190.2 192.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 3 5 5 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. -7. -24. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. -2. -27. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 178.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 481.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.32 -1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 23.4% 15.7% 15.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.8% 5.3% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##