* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 80 75 72 71 71 72 71 69 70 70 71 73 75 77 79 V (KT) LAND 95 88 80 75 72 71 71 72 71 69 70 70 71 73 75 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 78 73 68 66 67 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 26 28 20 12 7 2 1 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 4 5 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 203 220 228 237 254 332 355 90 109 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.4 26.8 26.7 27.0 26.9 27.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 137 138 139 133 132 136 134 142 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 52 51 53 53 53 55 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 17 17 16 16 17 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 16 11 -3 -24 -34 -42 -43 -73 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 -4 -33 0 5 -3 12 0 17 -57 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 18 8 8 7 2 -1 -1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1150 1255 1366 1497 1630 1925 2238 2550 2862 2623 2300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.2 23.9 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.1 29.2 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.3 172.4 173.5 174.8 176.0 178.8 181.8 184.8 187.8 190.8 193.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 8 8 7 4 3 5 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -31. -32. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -10. -8. -5. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -20. -23. -24. -24. -23. -24. -26. -25. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.8 171.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 759.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##