* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 37 33 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 37 33 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 41 37 34 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 9 10 14 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 96 90 334 313 306 311 297 300 310 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.0 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 93 91 87 81 78 77 75 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 67 65 64 63 59 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 18 16 14 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 19 3 -4 6 1 8 -11 -13 -31 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -2 -6 -2 6 -4 1 -15 4 -8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 500 560 633 697 757 816 839 832 828 808 804 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.1 121.1 121.9 122.7 123.9 124.8 125.4 125.8 125.9 126.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -23. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -20. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -22. -28. -36. -43. -50. -55. -58. -61. -63. -64. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.2 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##