* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 103 102 96 90 84 80 76 74 65 58 50 42 34 31 V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 103 102 96 90 84 80 76 74 65 58 50 42 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 103 102 99 94 84 73 65 58 51 45 40 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 7 9 16 21 32 21 19 13 23 23 9 22 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 7 -1 7 2 8 0 -3 -2 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 290 269 253 220 201 219 203 213 204 193 165 157 149 126 54 59 72 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.4 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.7 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 144 145 149 140 136 137 130 126 121 110 109 104 100 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 46 48 48 49 48 46 50 52 54 52 52 56 55 49 47 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 22 23 23 22 21 20 20 16 14 10 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 77 65 64 64 53 44 28 10 -11 -31 -59 -61 -62 -49 -55 -100 200 MB DIV 39 44 47 58 79 95 53 31 22 10 42 6 12 -9 -30 -52 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 9 16 22 10 26 16 14 0 0 0 2 14 LAND (KM) 580 621 690 766 856 1023 1217 1439 1699 1994 2287 2578 2575 2362 2169 2008 1833 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.6 21.2 22.9 24.6 26.2 28.0 30.0 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.4 163.8 165.1 166.3 167.6 169.8 172.0 174.2 176.6 179.3 181.9 184.4 186.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 13 10 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 26 33 32 28 11 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -17. -25. -31. -37. -42. -45. -48. -51. -54. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -36. -45. -52. -60. -68. -76. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.0 162.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 824.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##