* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 52 46 40 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 52 46 40 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 54 50 42 36 32 29 27 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 6 7 3 5 8 11 12 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 340 60 106 131 184 213 269 270 276 227 263 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.9 23.0 22.5 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.3 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 110 102 93 86 77 78 77 76 74 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 71 69 66 65 64 58 56 47 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 22 21 19 18 16 13 13 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 39 38 29 14 10 16 6 -3 -16 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 17 10 5 -1 -8 -4 0 -14 2 -7 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -6 -5 -3 -4 1 4 4 -1 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 412 424 450 507 654 759 855 869 871 846 808 766 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.6 119.7 121.6 123.2 124.4 125.2 125.6 125.8 125.9 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 3 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -25. -29. -34. -39. -43. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -32. -39. -44. -47. -52. -58. -60. -61. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.3 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##