* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 64 60 52 44 37 29 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 64 60 52 44 37 29 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 61 57 47 39 33 30 27 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 2 4 9 11 13 5 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 -5 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 287 13 65 77 274 289 268 271 261 237 257 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.5 24.7 24.5 23.9 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.1 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 119 111 109 102 87 81 75 75 73 72 69 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 72 69 68 65 62 58 53 50 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 23 22 19 17 15 14 14 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 27 36 39 23 13 10 17 -1 4 -11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 38 24 -1 1 -5 11 -4 0 -15 -4 -14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 0 -2 0 -2 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 279 299 365 375 400 531 680 776 844 851 846 802 766 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.9 115.9 117.0 118.1 120.2 122.0 123.5 124.7 125.4 125.8 125.8 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 9 8 6 5 3 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -14. -19. -25. -29. -33. -39. -44. -48. -52. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -19. -21. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -26. -33. -41. -46. -49. -55. -60. -62. -63. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 22.7 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##