* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 105 99 95 87 83 84 83 84 82 82 82 83 86 87 86 V (KT) LAND 115 110 105 99 95 87 83 84 83 84 82 82 82 83 86 87 86 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 97 92 86 85 84 86 89 90 88 87 86 86 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 6 8 10 4 4 4 11 10 13 11 16 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 -2 -1 2 -3 -6 -1 0 0 2 2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 277 264 285 278 227 247 244 284 256 216 200 201 201 213 211 222 205 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 137 141 139 138 138 140 140 138 143 142 142 136 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 44 43 42 44 48 48 51 52 55 56 57 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 17 17 18 21 20 22 22 23 23 23 26 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 3 18 18 28 33 40 65 74 71 75 65 48 35 30 19 12 13 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -1 -3 4 50 35 50 62 29 10 31 22 15 37 46 34 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 0 -5 -4 0 1 5 10 5 11 13 10 13 14 LAND (KM) 606 477 370 276 238 398 550 691 892 1108 1320 1524 1760 2013 2272 2535 2800 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.0 151.5 153.0 154.5 156.0 158.9 161.9 164.9 167.7 170.3 172.7 174.9 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 10 12 18 20 26 24 38 27 13 13 19 12 13 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -31. -37. -43. -47. -50. -50. -51. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -28. -32. -31. -32. -31. -33. -33. -33. -31. -29. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.5 150.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 976.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 5 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##