* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 46 47 49 48 46 42 38 35 33 32 31 31 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 46 46 47 49 48 46 42 38 35 33 32 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 42 40 37 35 32 29 27 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 13 10 4 2 3 6 12 17 15 10 5 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 1 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 17 358 357 357 344 320 142 175 223 229 239 277 239 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.7 24.0 24.0 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 133 133 134 132 127 122 115 109 102 103 107 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 63 63 62 61 59 59 53 46 42 37 25 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 17 12 10 8 22 27 30 58 85 106 101 61 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 23 18 -2 -22 0 -10 25 5 9 -16 -42 -19 -20 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -9 -11 -11 -9 -7 0 -1 -2 -5 -8 -7 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1958 2009 2061 2086 2109 2097 2037 1966 1908 1886 1898 1915 2015 1718 1425 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.5 128.2 128.8 129.4 130.2 130.4 130.5 130.7 131.3 132.1 133.4 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 12 14 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 19 12 9 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.7 126.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 16.7% 16.1% 12.5% 8.7% 14.2% 13.6% 11.2% Logistic: 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.2% 5.5% 4.3% 3.0% 4.8% 4.6% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##