* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 101 97 93 87 85 86 85 88 88 90 90 92 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 115 107 101 97 93 87 85 86 85 88 88 90 90 92 93 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 99 93 89 84 84 85 87 91 94 95 92 91 90 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 6 9 7 2 2 5 10 11 11 5 8 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 0 -5 0 -1 -5 -2 1 5 0 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 293 273 241 265 253 219 233 250 280 217 208 186 220 232 272 306 316 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 137 141 139 139 138 143 138 142 143 144 139 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 43 42 40 38 39 43 45 51 53 55 56 60 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 19 19 19 18 20 21 20 23 24 25 24 24 25 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 27 25 33 47 61 80 70 73 75 71 57 40 32 24 7 200 MB DIV -33 10 -4 -4 4 33 27 32 38 53 29 42 -2 8 0 9 1 700-850 TADV -9 -3 2 4 2 -1 -5 -1 1 2 6 11 8 4 13 0 4 LAND (KM) 755 612 481 375 286 316 556 636 811 1022 1230 1428 1625 1810 2004 2195 2393 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.0 151.5 153.0 154.5 157.6 160.6 163.7 166.5 169.2 171.6 173.8 175.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 10 13 19 24 31 43 33 18 11 18 12 12 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -15. -23. -31. -37. -43. -47. -50. -50. -50. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. -0. 4. 5. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -22. -28. -30. -29. -30. -27. -27. -25. -25. -23. -22. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 148.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 973.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 33 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##