* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 104 100 97 91 88 88 90 87 90 88 92 94 94 93 90 V (KT) LAND 115 108 104 100 97 91 88 88 90 87 90 88 92 94 94 93 90 V (KT) LGEM 115 106 99 94 89 84 83 86 89 91 93 93 92 91 89 84 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 3 6 4 7 3 6 5 3 8 12 15 19 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 1 -3 -1 0 -4 0 5 1 6 9 7 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 1 356 307 186 222 224 231 214 311 310 220 223 227 225 231 232 237 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.2 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 131 138 140 139 139 141 139 138 142 142 144 136 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 45 45 43 40 39 42 44 49 53 59 62 64 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 21 20 20 19 20 20 22 22 25 23 25 26 26 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 29 12 7 23 24 43 52 72 78 74 79 74 60 44 45 32 27 200 MB DIV -13 -25 7 1 6 22 41 34 5 0 -9 31 56 86 61 85 24 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -5 2 5 3 -5 -3 2 3 -1 4 4 14 20 21 22 LAND (KM) 903 754 610 485 380 262 437 582 729 925 1131 1308 1492 1682 1870 2048 2247 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.1 148.6 150.1 151.5 153.0 156.1 159.2 162.2 165.2 168.0 170.5 172.5 174.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 3 10 17 21 26 26 36 27 14 13 21 10 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -23. -31. -38. -43. -47. -50. -50. -51. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 1. 5. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -15. -18. -24. -27. -27. -25. -28. -25. -27. -23. -21. -21. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.0 147.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 909.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 68 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##