* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP112018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 67 72 74 73 71 69 68 67 68 66 65 64 64 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 67 72 74 73 71 69 68 67 68 66 65 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 62 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 20 17 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 2 2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 304 313 288 294 304 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.7 30.6 28.7 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 170 173 173 152 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 80 80 80 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 24 38 43 51 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 137 107 112 107 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -22 -1 3 5 23 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 156 118 128 183 262 235 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.8 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 104.0 105.5 106.8 108.1 110.3 112.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 29 25 27 20 10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.6 102.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 48.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.2% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 19.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##