* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 103 100 95 90 87 83 83 78 77 81 81 85 87 89 88 V (KT) LAND 110 107 103 100 95 90 87 83 83 78 77 81 81 85 87 89 88 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 102 97 94 90 89 88 86 84 85 88 94 100 100 98 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 12 6 7 1 4 1 3 3 3 4 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 1 2 4 0 0 -5 -6 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 316 346 20 21 22 55 22 78 189 151 35 36 330 297 226 222 209 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 139 140 135 135 131 132 135 138 138 139 140 139 139 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 52 53 49 45 40 41 39 38 40 44 48 53 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 20 20 21 20 22 20 19 21 20 22 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 45 45 36 45 35 21 40 42 60 61 64 57 50 48 50 200 MB DIV -20 -20 -12 -19 -8 0 9 41 -4 17 -18 -7 8 25 16 18 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -2 -6 -2 0 1 -6 0 1 2 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 2050 1920 1791 1650 1509 1209 893 582 346 215 352 499 591 734 918 1092 1290 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.3 137.5 138.7 140.0 141.3 144.1 147.1 150.2 153.1 155.9 158.6 161.2 163.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 10 8 10 14 5 2 6 13 22 30 32 17 22 35 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -46. -46. -47. -48. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -3. 0. -3. -4. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -15. -20. -22. -27. -27. -32. -33. -29. -29. -25. -23. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.3 136.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.08 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 738.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 -0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 14.4% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##