* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 106 103 97 92 87 83 82 82 79 80 84 86 87 88 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 106 103 97 92 87 83 82 82 79 80 84 86 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 102 99 93 90 87 87 86 85 84 85 90 95 99 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 5 7 7 11 5 4 4 2 2 8 2 8 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 1 -7 -3 0 2 5 6 7 -2 0 -7 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 348 22 301 335 343 43 72 90 18 90 71 323 38 150 348 308 321 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.8 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.7 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 139 143 143 139 133 137 136 132 138 137 138 142 142 141 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 50 50 53 51 48 42 40 39 41 42 45 47 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 19 20 20 19 19 20 17 17 18 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 53 50 50 51 44 48 26 25 35 37 38 55 44 30 22 200 MB DIV 27 22 0 -16 -15 -23 23 17 -16 -22 -14 -12 -10 30 32 2 -26 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -7 0 1 -3 -7 1 1 3 6 LAND (KM) 2371 2261 2152 2029 1906 1642 1345 1048 741 473 281 268 477 548 690 865 1060 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.3 135.3 136.5 137.6 140.1 142.9 145.7 148.7 151.6 154.4 157.1 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 8 17 14 9 8 16 6 4 9 15 22 33 21 23 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -33. -39. -43. -45. -46. -47. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -0. 0. -3. -3. -2. -0. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -23. -27. -28. -28. -31. -30. -26. -24. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.2 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 5.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##