* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 95 95 92 89 86 86 86 82 83 84 85 84 85 85 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 95 95 92 89 86 86 86 82 83 84 85 84 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 92 93 93 90 88 85 83 82 80 80 80 78 78 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 4 2 3 8 4 7 4 3 3 4 6 12 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 -2 1 1 3 6 6 6 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 21 51 39 24 32 295 345 353 53 113 331 331 21 40 49 27 331 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 139 141 137 138 144 139 137 137 135 133 135 138 135 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 59 56 52 54 52 51 48 44 41 39 42 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 21 21 21 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 18 22 30 50 48 52 45 37 17 21 23 7 2 6 8 200 MB DIV 16 26 22 17 14 13 -4 -13 27 25 -15 -1 -14 7 -23 -10 6 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -5 -1 -1 -3 -2 -5 1 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 2126 2203 2283 2362 2354 2139 1893 1635 1361 1082 797 535 313 180 284 443 480 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.4 131.4 132.4 133.4 135.5 137.8 140.2 142.7 145.3 148.0 150.6 153.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 7 5 8 15 10 11 20 6 5 8 13 21 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -4. -4. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 129.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.89 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.31 -2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.78 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 25.8% 21.2% 16.6% 14.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 9.5% 7.2% 5.3% 2.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 11.9% 9.5% 7.3% 5.5% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##