* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 79 79 81 82 82 81 81 83 80 83 85 85 84 87 87 V (KT) LAND 80 78 79 79 81 82 82 81 81 83 80 83 85 85 84 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 80 78 77 77 78 79 81 80 78 78 79 81 82 80 78 82 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 4 5 0 8 4 8 8 2 6 3 8 12 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -4 0 3 2 7 8 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 30 17 33 44 26 348 306 319 18 49 322 5 33 55 57 80 40 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 139 141 135 144 142 139 136 139 135 133 135 137 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 60 58 53 54 54 55 52 47 44 44 44 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 18 20 20 21 21 21 23 20 22 23 22 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -1 20 19 35 42 41 39 31 20 8 13 13 -5 6 2 200 MB DIV 33 21 28 8 7 31 10 -1 -4 7 -26 -1 3 11 -53 -13 -10 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -8 -8 -7 0 0 0 -6 -3 0 -3 3 1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2055 2130 2207 2291 2378 2220 2002 1768 1511 1222 951 690 458 289 193 273 446 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.4 130.4 131.5 132.6 134.7 136.8 139.0 141.4 144.1 146.7 149.2 151.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 6 6 7 4 15 11 11 15 10 6 6 9 14 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.28 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.5% 17.3% 12.7% 11.5% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.6% 6.3% 4.6% 4.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##