* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 101 101 101 99 97 94 91 89 90 87 86 90 88 89 90 V (KT) LAND 95 98 101 101 101 99 97 94 91 89 90 87 86 90 88 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 95 101 104 105 105 102 97 93 90 87 85 84 86 87 87 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 6 5 4 2 5 5 6 11 2 6 4 9 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 2 1 6 6 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 64 63 31 28 12 41 296 340 349 69 184 57 82 55 55 55 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.8 27.1 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 142 140 140 140 139 145 143 136 139 136 137 136 138 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 62 62 58 54 50 47 50 45 44 42 43 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 18 18 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 22 25 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 8 10 5 31 33 50 49 49 47 30 25 23 34 33 36 200 MB DIV 57 23 4 0 10 1 21 8 -9 -9 -26 -4 3 -3 13 -17 -15 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 -2 -2 -5 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1888 1987 2084 2168 2253 2391 2160 1931 1674 1410 1145 885 636 422 246 243 407 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.5 128.6 129.7 130.8 133.1 135.4 137.7 140.2 142.7 145.2 147.7 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 13 7 6 6 8 12 14 15 17 5 7 11 11 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 10. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. -1. -4. -6. -5. -8. -9. -5. -7. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.1 126.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.29 -1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 23.5% 19.7% 15.9% 13.3% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 6.7% 5.4% 4.0% 5.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 10.7% 8.4% 6.7% 6.3% 5.3% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##