* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 67 62 50 33 24 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 67 62 50 33 24 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 67 60 52 43 38 38 41 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 25 27 26 31 35 39 27 18 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 3 7 7 2 4 8 1 -7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 208 209 203 216 219 243 217 185 182 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 23.8 20.8 12.6 7.8 9.3 9.2 10.0 10.4 10.6 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 102 88 72 70 71 70 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 94 82 70 69 69 69 68 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -50.7 -47.5 -46.1 -46.0 -46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.0 3.3 5.4 4.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 50 47 47 40 40 56 61 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 30 31 30 27 24 18 19 25 23 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 49 48 2 -14 86 167 133 155 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 46 19 8 19 -24 -26 0 25 -2 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 11 -28 0 -67 -56 -43 -20 -7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 563 462 358 269 57 635 1305 1133 878 705 699 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 40.5 42.4 44.4 46.4 50.0 53.2 56.4 59.2 61.5 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.4 61.7 59.0 55.8 52.5 44.5 35.8 27.3 20.8 16.2 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 32 30 26 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -20. -27. -35. -42. -47. -51. -54. -58. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -10. -4. -8. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -8. -13. -25. -42. -51. -50. -53. -59. -61. -65. -70. -75. -77. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.5 64.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 67 62 50 33 24 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 68 63 51 34 25 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 61 49 32 23 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 48 31 22 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT