* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 84 81 68 54 38 30 27 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 84 81 68 54 38 30 27 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 87 84 76 55 44 39 39 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 25 30 30 32 30 36 31 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 5 7 7 11 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 231 207 207 212 217 228 233 220 202 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.9 25.7 23.7 21.0 7.8 9.0 9.1 10.1 10.6 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 116 101 88 70 71 71 70 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 115 105 93 82 69 70 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.1 -51.0 -47.3 -46.6 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.3 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 50 50 47 45 43 55 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 26 31 32 29 24 19 20 23 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 30 36 46 56 13 -11 90 172 144 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 60 60 46 -3 21 -2 -19 12 21 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 0 6 -1 -9 -13 -61 -66 -54 -39 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 608 561 527 419 319 33 598 1343 1104 816 746 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.7 37.3 38.8 40.7 42.6 46.4 49.9 53.4 57.1 60.8 64.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 66.8 64.7 62.1 59.5 53.3 45.0 35.3 26.6 18.9 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 25 27 28 31 34 33 29 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -21. -31. -40. -48. -54. -58. -62. -66. -67. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -13. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 2. -5. -4. -1. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -4. -17. -31. -47. -55. -58. -66. -68. -71. -75. -77. -78. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.7 69.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 548.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 3( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 85 84 81 68 54 38 30 27 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 83 80 67 53 37 29 26 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 77 64 50 34 26 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 59 45 29 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 53 39 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 59 45 29 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 85 76 70 66 52 36 28 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS