* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 88 86 78 62 45 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 88 86 78 62 45 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 95 95 91 69 49 40 38 39 38 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 28 33 30 30 36 42 40 28 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 4 8 5 8 10 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 289 236 210 208 204 230 228 233 210 188 199 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.4 26.8 25.3 24.3 12.5 5.6 10.0 10.0 11.5 11.5 10.9 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 121 126 113 105 72 69 71 70 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 107 113 102 96 70 69 69 68 67 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -52.9 -50.2 -47.9 -47.3 -47.3 -48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 47 51 52 50 47 50 43 44 49 54 55 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 26 30 34 27 21 19 23 17 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 32 34 44 50 6 28 110 165 153 132 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 50 63 54 42 5 16 -14 5 14 24 6 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 16 6 9 -2 -24 -29 -61 -48 -32 -15 -11 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 469 611 556 515 417 279 285 931 1444 901 622 462 460 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 36.0 37.2 38.9 40.6 44.4 48.0 51.1 53.7 55.8 57.9 60.2 62.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.7 68.9 67.1 64.7 62.3 56.4 49.0 40.6 32.0 23.7 17.2 12.5 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 22 25 27 30 31 30 28 23 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -22. -33. -43. -53. -59. -65. -70. -74. -76. -77. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 4. -3. -7. -2. -12. -16. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -28. -45. -59. -64. -79. -85. -93. -95. -96. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.7 70.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 10( 30) 6( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 89 88 86 78 62 45 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 85 77 61 44 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 75 59 42 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 70 54 37 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 47 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 65 49 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 89 80 74 70 54 37 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS