* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 65 66 71 78 74 62 46 38 36 29 26 25 25 23 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 65 66 71 78 74 62 46 38 36 29 26 25 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 66 73 74 57 44 38 39 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 13 10 23 29 34 34 42 38 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 0 2 4 -1 4 0 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 2 336 311 282 212 213 230 254 262 248 254 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 26.3 26.5 27.1 21.3 11.1 5.9 12.8 11.2 13.0 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 118 121 129 89 70 68 71 70 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 112 102 106 115 81 68 67 69 68 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.4 -53.0 -50.9 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 36 40 47 49 46 45 44 40 37 37 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 24 32 30 24 18 17 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -22 -13 23 19 37 59 42 3 -1 62 137 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 33 29 37 42 44 38 29 21 -12 -14 -15 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 1 8 16 20 8 6 -14 -29 -17 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 376 398 465 563 525 398 235 263 808 1362 1116 592 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.7 35.6 38.2 41.4 44.7 47.5 49.6 51.2 52.4 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 72.8 72.0 70.8 69.5 65.8 61.1 55.7 49.3 42.0 34.4 26.7 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 11 14 17 22 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 1 2 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 2. 10. 9. 2. -8. -10. -9. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 18. 14. 2. -14. -22. -24. -31. -34. -35. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.8 73.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.8% 10.3% 8.0% 4.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.0% 3.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.3% 1.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 63 65 66 71 78 74 62 46 38 36 29 26 25 25 23 18HR AGO 60 59 60 62 63 68 75 71 59 43 35 33 26 23 22 22 20 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 64 71 67 55 39 31 29 22 19 18 18 16 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 56 63 59 47 31 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT