* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 60 63 67 71 80 77 63 47 38 36 34 34 32 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 60 63 67 71 80 77 63 41 36 34 32 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 57 59 63 65 69 75 61 45 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 11 17 15 17 19 31 31 32 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -1 0 1 0 2 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 34 33 20 25 348 304 219 208 198 225 224 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.0 26.8 23.6 18.2 10.3 7.9 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 134 137 125 124 98 78 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 105 105 108 114 108 107 87 72 67 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 -0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 6 8 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 37 36 33 40 45 47 47 47 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 31 31 26 19 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -4 -10 -26 -27 -17 22 16 41 33 5 -13 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 12 9 -5 0 32 14 47 16 31 -1 -24 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 6 -1 5 8 -1 6 -21 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 317 322 324 327 323 371 538 410 249 122 -42 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.4 33.0 34.5 36.6 39.1 42.1 45.1 48.0 51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.4 73.7 71.9 69.4 66.5 63.1 59.0 54.4 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 7 13 16 18 20 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 17 14 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 13. 14. 6. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 21. 30. 27. 13. -3. -12. -14. -16. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.5 74.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.62 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 6.9% 6.8% 2.2% 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.5% 5.9% 0.7% 0.1% 3.6% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 60 63 67 71 80 77 63 41 36 34 32 32 30 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 56 59 63 67 76 73 59 37 32 30 28 28 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 53 57 61 70 67 53 31 26 24 22 22 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 45 49 53 62 59 45 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT