* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 55 60 67 73 76 82 78 62 48 45 43 43 41 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 55 60 67 73 76 82 78 62 41 37 35 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 60 63 65 68 70 58 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 12 12 6 12 14 14 22 37 32 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 0 2 2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 318 310 347 16 33 354 318 240 213 224 236 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 26.9 26.7 23.1 14.2 9.3 4.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 135 133 135 134 124 124 96 72 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 107 107 106 109 112 106 108 87 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.5 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -53.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 5 6 5 4 7 5 8 5 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 43 40 41 36 36 41 50 50 49 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 18 20 23 24 24 31 32 26 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 -15 -27 -5 -28 -14 13 43 41 3 -12 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 29 0 -7 -7 -6 15 44 50 18 -8 -16 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 -7 -30 -26 -27 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 213 225 237 251 266 283 308 375 500 367 169 30 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.9 33.6 34.9 37.1 40.2 43.6 47.3 51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.7 74.4 73.4 71.7 69.1 65.4 61.1 56.4 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 3 8 12 18 22 24 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 21 19 15 8 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -10. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 18. 20. 11. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 27. 33. 36. 42. 38. 22. 8. 5. 3. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.3 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 12.2% 13.3% Logistic: 7.8% 21.6% 20.6% 7.8% 1.9% 6.0% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 12.1% 10.3% 2.6% 0.6% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 51 55 60 67 73 76 82 78 62 41 37 35 35 34 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 50 55 62 68 71 77 73 57 36 32 30 30 29 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 48 55 61 64 70 66 50 29 25 23 23 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 46 52 55 61 57 41 20 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT