* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 53 58 66 68 75 80 81 67 65 64 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 53 58 66 68 75 80 81 63 61 60 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 56 58 62 66 57 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 11 11 3 15 20 20 12 18 21 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 0 3 -1 -1 -2 -3 2 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 324 326 327 324 15 18 3 321 272 239 216 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.3 27.2 21.0 9.2 6.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 135 134 134 132 123 119 131 87 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 109 109 108 108 108 105 105 116 80 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.3 -55.5 -54.9 -55.0 -54.3 -55.2 -54.8 -54.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 7 6 8 6 9 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 51 46 42 37 39 47 60 59 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 14 17 18 20 20 24 27 30 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -6 -6 -9 -21 7 -27 -18 25 54 35 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 6 14 35 -8 7 0 6 43 63 26 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 8 18 -6 -15 -46 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 254 261 269 283 298 323 349 398 589 531 352 113 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.9 33.3 34.1 35.8 38.5 41.9 45.9 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 75.0 74.8 74.5 74.3 73.8 73.1 71.8 69.2 65.3 60.9 56.2 51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 2 5 10 17 22 25 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 19 18 14 10 4 1 12 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 7. 12. 17. 20. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 28. 36. 38. 45. 50. 51. 37. 35. 34. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.8 75.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.5% 9.4% 6.7% 3.2% 7.8% 10.1% 10.8% Logistic: 5.0% 15.9% 8.4% 1.9% 0.7% 4.0% 7.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.4% 6.0% 2.9% 1.3% 4.0% 5.9% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 45 53 58 66 68 75 80 81 63 61 60 61 60 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 48 53 61 63 70 75 76 58 56 55 56 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 41 46 54 56 63 68 69 51 49 48 49 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 36 44 46 53 58 59 41 39 38 39 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT