* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 48 56 63 69 71 79 82 81 81 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 48 56 63 69 71 79 82 81 81 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 36 42 47 52 58 63 67 61 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 6 8 12 16 13 4 3 13 6 15 26 26 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 0 1 -4 -1 -4 -3 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 24 5 324 300 296 287 351 101 83 59 247 233 219 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.6 25.1 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 138 138 138 136 136 135 133 135 129 125 120 106 86 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 111 110 110 107 108 106 105 108 108 105 101 90 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.6 -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -54.9 -55.4 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 6 6 3 6 6 9 7 9 8 8 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 51 48 44 40 35 35 39 48 53 52 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 14 15 14 17 20 21 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 11 22 18 3 -3 -29 -19 -41 -18 -2 39 33 22 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 30 33 32 6 20 -12 -3 -5 14 11 44 8 4 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 4 10 9 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 304 259 238 218 227 249 276 290 298 322 463 499 387 302 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.8 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.5 33.5 34.3 35.7 37.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.4 74.4 74.2 74.0 73.8 73.7 73.6 72.6 70.6 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 8 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 18 21 25 31 31 27 21 19 18 9 12 6 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 8. 11. 11. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 23. 31. 38. 44. 46. 54. 57. 56. 56. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.4 74.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.5% 8.8% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 4.2% 3.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.4% 4.4% 2.5% 0.2% 1.4% 4.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 41 48 56 63 69 71 79 82 81 81 81 82 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 39 46 54 61 67 69 77 80 79 79 79 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 41 49 56 62 64 72 75 74 74 74 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 40 47 53 55 63 66 65 65 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT