* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 72 71 70 67 62 60 55 55 57 58 60 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 72 71 70 67 62 60 55 52 54 56 57 59 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 73 71 67 62 58 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 13 12 19 17 29 34 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 2 0 2 -2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 292 292 307 307 286 283 264 277 277 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 118 119 117 123 129 132 131 137 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 116 118 117 123 129 132 131 137 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 59 57 53 51 46 47 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 12 13 11 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 53 45 48 43 45 41 43 48 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 25 25 16 10 35 36 39 48 41 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 1 4 16 12 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 848 812 788 773 765 689 445 438 167 79 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.4 17.5 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.3 49.4 50.7 52.0 55.2 59.0 62.9 66.8 70.5 74.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 13 15 18 20 19 19 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 6 8 3 4 29 16 28 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -9. -10. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -8. -10. -15. -15. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.6 47.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 17.0% 11.9% 9.2% 5.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 9.4% 7.7% 3.1% 1.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.2% 6.9% 4.1% 2.3% 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 72 71 70 67 62 60 55 52 54 56 57 59 61 62 18HR AGO 70 69 71 70 69 68 65 60 58 53 50 52 54 55 57 59 60 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 63 60 55 53 48 45 47 49 50 52 54 55 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 55 50 48 43 40 42 44 45 47 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT