* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 27 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 27 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 33 29 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 12 16 17 24 32 31 37 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 10 6 4 4 0 0 1 -3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 233 211 225 240 240 241 238 244 261 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.8 22.0 22.7 22.3 21.5 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.1 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 91 83 90 85 77 76 82 87 93 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 50 45 39 34 27 25 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 24 22 20 18 15 13 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 7 -3 -27 -7 -7 -3 -11 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 1 0 -2 6 -12 -30 -21 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 18 20 14 13 21 13 12 5 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1417 1477 1545 1622 1684 1758 1856 1892 1721 1576 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.2 25.6 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.5 128.7 129.9 131.0 133.2 135.3 137.3 139.2 140.9 142.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -24. -25. -27. -28. -30. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -17. -24. -27. -30. -29. -26. -24. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -29. -34. -43. -53. -62. -73. -76. -79. -83. -87. -94. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 126.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##