* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 79 88 95 106 107 97 82 64 53 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 71 79 88 95 106 107 97 82 64 53 42 33 25 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 71 78 85 92 100 95 79 60 44 33 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 11 9 9 7 11 3 3 6 10 13 16 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 0 3 5 9 17 13 6 5 3 3 0 4 10 SHEAR DIR 34 27 23 38 21 31 32 50 12 336 271 233 232 228 234 227 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 26.8 26.2 24.4 23.2 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.6 22.6 21.9 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 154 149 133 127 108 96 85 89 82 78 88 81 83 84 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 69 68 69 64 61 57 58 58 51 47 43 41 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 38 39 44 45 43 39 33 30 27 24 20 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 68 68 75 79 77 88 64 55 39 33 13 1 -3 -8 -17 -29 -36 200 MB DIV 110 104 120 93 73 51 11 39 9 -8 7 16 0 14 -17 -13 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 3 9 18 16 23 16 16 15 12 8 LAND (KM) 931 977 1037 1057 1062 1130 1196 1306 1389 1486 1629 1685 1766 1874 1790 1654 1525 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.8 18.0 19.4 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.8 115.0 117.5 120.0 122.6 125.1 127.5 130.0 132.5 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 32 17 15 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 14. 15. 11. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 30. 41. 42. 32. 17. -1. -12. -23. -32. -40. -46. -53. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.8 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.74 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 9.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.9% 48.4% 43.9% 35.2% 24.3% 24.4% 15.2% 9.8% Logistic: 14.2% 36.6% 20.9% 14.1% 5.7% 10.5% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 44.5% 69.7% 71.0% 52.6% 10.8% 18.6% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 31.5% 51.6% 45.2% 34.0% 13.6% 17.8% 6.1% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##