* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 33 32 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 33 32 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 31 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 4 3 6 10 11 17 15 23 21 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 -1 0 7 0 2 0 6 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 60 13 295 258 257 234 235 238 246 251 260 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.5 25.3 23.3 22.0 22.0 23.1 22.7 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 125 118 116 95 82 82 93 90 95 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 62 59 59 58 51 44 37 36 31 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 18 18 15 14 12 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 32 15 12 19 27 42 38 46 24 21 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 -2 -2 -8 4 14 15 -20 -35 -33 -19 -29 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 2 1 10 0 -2 4 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1036 1071 1100 1142 1190 1284 1351 1435 1558 1705 1844 1997 1813 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.0 122.8 124.7 126.6 128.6 130.5 132.7 135.2 137.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -49. -49. -50. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##