* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 50 48 49 47 41 35 29 24 18 18 19 19 18 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 50 48 49 47 41 35 29 24 18 18 19 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 52 49 46 42 36 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 16 16 11 1 9 9 13 13 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 8 2 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 50 54 57 64 65 192 267 271 272 270 269 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.0 24.2 24.5 23.2 22.6 22.3 22.9 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 134 132 131 123 104 107 94 88 85 91 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 63 62 62 61 60 54 47 39 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 20 21 20 18 16 13 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 46 52 47 27 20 23 20 32 31 47 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 65 30 15 0 -4 -10 0 -10 -43 -22 -26 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 2 2 6 1 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 943 961 992 1025 1066 1117 1184 1272 1328 1399 1518 1666 1738 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.0 116.0 116.9 117.8 119.6 121.2 122.8 124.6 126.4 128.4 130.4 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. -0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 4. 2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -27. -27. -26. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.15 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 20.9% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.5% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##