* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052018 06/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 34 33 30 27 25 25 22 20 18 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 34 33 30 27 25 25 22 20 18 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 31 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 12 10 8 4 7 2 2 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 3 9 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 46 51 48 40 357 299 289 346 359 197 204 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.2 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.2 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 138 133 130 125 109 106 101 94 93 91 92 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 57 52 48 48 47 46 45 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 41 34 36 37 33 33 31 27 32 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 55 38 25 13 -8 -19 -17 -21 -16 -33 -28 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -4 0 1 0 1 2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1089 1021 959 921 891 860 899 995 1104 1229 1392 1597 1807 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.2 116.6 117.7 118.9 120.4 122.0 123.9 125.9 128.2 130.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 115.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.26 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.27 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.6% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##