* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 35 38 43 48 53 57 60 63 66 68 69 71 73 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 35 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 28 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 13 12 9 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 2 3 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 2 12 10 13 356 17 16 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 152 152 149 145 141 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.5 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 72 71 70 72 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 -7 5 7 29 37 61 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 39 39 34 28 55 60 76 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 109 98 86 67 48 -5 -40 -80 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.3 99.1 98.8 98.7 98.7 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 19 16 13 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 41. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 99.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.82 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.5% 16.5% 12.7% 0.0% 14.8% 13.8% 13.4% Logistic: 5.1% 28.3% 13.2% 6.5% 2.6% 13.9% 21.4% 34.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 2.5% 0.9% Consensus: 4.7% 17.0% 10.1% 6.5% 0.9% 10.1% 12.6% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##