* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 45 44 43 42 30 31 30 30 28 26 23 20 17 17 V (KT) LAND 50 47 46 45 44 39 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 45 42 40 38 32 32 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 1 4 5 5 9 21 18 26 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -2 -2 0 0 6 3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 178 221 252 248 223 243 239 225 230 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.7 28.9 25.2 24.1 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 128 124 120 120 154 116 106 97 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 66 64 65 65 57 55 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 20 19 16 7 9 12 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 46 58 44 29 38 40 52 33 54 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 28 21 25 22 39 54 52 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 19 53 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 336 330 272 207 143 -18 45 -118 -377 -659 -972 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.7 23.3 25.5 28.0 30.8 33.9 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.7 109.7 109.4 108.4 106.8 105.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 10 12 13 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -7. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -5. -18. -17. -13. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -20. -19. -20. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##