* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 52 50 49 46 44 39 33 31 35 34 33 30 28 26 26 V (KT) LAND 60 54 52 50 49 46 43 39 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 52 48 45 43 39 36 31 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 7 8 5 17 17 23 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -6 -3 1 0 8 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 326 231 221 230 198 239 244 239 226 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.1 24.9 27.5 28.5 24.8 23.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 127 123 111 139 151 113 101 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 6 4 5 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 65 65 64 66 62 57 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 21 17 16 11 7 8 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 48 53 36 38 23 41 29 20 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 26 29 18 20 25 31 52 44 25 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 0 -1 -2 0 -6 13 11 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 341 339 328 269 209 73 32 37 -198 -528 -799 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.3 24.2 26.4 29.1 32.3 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.9 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.7 109.8 109.8 109.0 107.6 106.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 10 13 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 0 0 3 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -12. -20. -19. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -21. -27. -29. -25. -26. -27. -30. -32. -34. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.2 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##