* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 107 105 101 91 82 76 67 56 44 31 26 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LAND 105 108 107 105 101 91 82 76 67 56 44 30 28 31 33 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 105 101 96 83 72 63 55 47 38 28 29 29 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 12 8 9 6 5 5 9 6 5 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 2 4 0 -6 -1 -1 0 2 -2 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 78 56 64 63 67 46 53 335 288 274 250 231 200 353 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.0 23.3 22.0 22.8 25.4 27.1 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 140 138 131 123 111 93 80 88 114 132 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 78 77 74 69 66 62 64 61 51 40 34 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 27 27 26 24 23 20 17 14 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 9 10 31 52 57 66 54 54 40 37 11 32 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 154 205 154 122 98 96 81 27 5 19 7 -23 -20 -30 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -6 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -4 1 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 371 379 377 376 355 352 306 200 108 46 -10 0 30 62 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.6 107.9 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -32. -40. -47. -53. -56. -57. -58. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -0. -4. -14. -23. -29. -38. -49. -61. -74. -79. -78. -77. -76. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.06 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.27 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.6 -30.0 to 145.0 1.00 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 20.2% 17.6% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 7.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 9.4% 6.7% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##